One of the highlights of the 2021 Ravens season has to be the dramatic comeback and overtime victory against the Indianapolis Colts in week 5. Trailing 22-3 with three minutes left in the third quarter, Lamar Jackson led the Ravens offense to four straight touchdown drives to an exhilarating 31-25 overtime victory.
They ran 32 plays over those four drives, 24 passes and 8 rushes, gaining positive yardage on 29 of them. Most notably, the Ravens had zero third downs on any of those four drives. The offense earned a new set of downs on 6 of 19 first downs and a remarkable 13 of 13 second downs. This rare feat may have been more than just a product of the way the offense was rolling by the end of the game – it may have been the very thing that allowed for the comeback to happen at all.
Third Down and a Million
The Ravens were atrocious on third down this year, to the point that it was hard to have any confidence in their ability to convert, even when they seemed to be rolling.
Their third down struggles were not a new development in the rough second half of the season, as they were one of the worst third down offenses in the league by most metrics from the start. Baltimore’s offense converted at least 50% of their third downs in only five games: vs. Chiefs, vs. Chargers, at Steelers, vs. GB, and at CIN.
For comparison, the Bills led the league with 10 such games. The Chiefs, who had nine, actually converted more than half of all of their third down attempts for the season, the only team to do so. Even worse, Baltimore found themselves toward the top of the league in third down stinkers, one of seven teams that converted less than 25% of their third down attempts in four games. Only Chicago and Denver put up more with five each. The Chiefs managed to avoid any such stinkers, as did the Eagles, Bucs, and Titans, and the majority of teams had no more than two such games.
The Ravens, and us fans, believe they should have a top tier offense, powered by an elite QB in Lamar Jackson. In order to get back closer to 2019 levels of offensive efficiency and output, the Ravens will need to take a long look at their third down playbook this offseason.
A Uniquely Painful 2021
This year’s iteration of the offense doesn’t compare particularly favorably to past Ravens offenses either.
The 2021 offense began the season significantly worse than the previous three seasons in cumulative expected points added (EPA) on third downs and never really turned it around (note that 2018 includes both Flacco and Lamar games to enable a full season comparison).
Needless to say, the Ravens have been unusually bad this year on 3rd down — the first time in the Lamar era they’ve ended the season net negative. They had finished in the top 10 league-wide by this metric each of the previous three seasons, but ended fourth worst in 2021. In fact, this year’s team posted the third-worst cumulative third down EPA in the Harbaugh era, better only than 2015 (another injury ravaged season) and 2017.
By Land or By Sea, It Doesn’t Matter
The Ravens struggled on third down both on the ground and through the air. In 2021, the Ravens converted just 45% of third down rushes, the first time the run offense has failed to convert a majority of third down attempts since 2015. Not surprisingly, the Ravens also finished with the second worst EPA per play on 3rd down rushes in the Harbaugh era (-0.16), again better only than in 2015.
Struggling so mightily on third down rushes is of particular concern for a team more oriented around their run game than most. Naturally, teams tend to only run on manageable third downs, and thus third down rushing is one of the few areas where running tends to produce positive expected points, on average. Two out of every three offenses produced positive EPA per play on third down rushes in 2021.
They were no better through the air, converting just 33% of their third down passes compared to the league average of 37%. According to the nflfastR model, the Ravens cost themselves more than 36 expected points on third down passes this year (sacks and turnovers play a big role in the magnitude of that number).
One Mistake, Two Mistakes, Three Mistakes, Four
It’s not terribly hard to develop theories as to why the Ravens have struggled on third down. Their offensive line, particularly their tackles, couldn’t protect consistently without help, but providing help limits options down the field. The QB also often didn’t trust that he’d have time to let plays develop, something that seemed to particularly trouble Lamar during the four game slump prior to his injury. We can see these struggles in the data as well – Football Outsiders identifies the Ravens as by far the worst offense on 3rd (and 4th) and long, which they define as seven or more yards to go, with a DVOA of -102.2%. The next closest team was Carolina at -83% this year. No team finished below -80% in 2020.
The Ravens tied with Seattle for the most sacks allowed on third and longs with 16. Add in seven turnovers in such situations and the Ravens produced four more costly errors on third and long than any other team in the league – not a great position to be in.
At the same time, the lack of healthy talent at RBs compounded the offensive line issues to make it harder to convert third and shorts (two yards or less) on the ground. They fared only slightly better relative to the league in these situations by DVOA, ranking 24th at -9.9%, mostly because they avoided taking any sacks or committing any turnovers. Yet, the Ravens were still third worst at converting third and shorts this year with a 59% success rate. By comparison, they ranked 2nd, 10th, and 2nd in converting third and shorts between 2018 and 2020, reaching at least a 68% conversion rate each year.
Regardless of the reasons, the bottom line is that the Ravens needed to be better on third down and largely failed to keep drives alive all year. Since third down plays are often higher leverage plays than most, it’s no surprise that the Ravens couldn’t consistently put up points on offense and weren’t able to pull away from teams when they do get a lead. Turns out, football is hard enough without having only two plays to move the chains and keep drives alive! In 2022, improving on third downs will be critical to a more successful offense. For now, at least we’ll always have Indy…
